Two siblings separated at birth and brought up in very different milieu, meet each other as adults and offer a study in contrast. This hackneyed storyline of Bombay cinema could well capture the political history of India and Pakistan as they complete sixty years of existence as independent political entities. The first ever Indo-Pak opinion poll, though confined to big cities on both sides of the border, brings out this stark contrast.
The Indian Express –Dawn News–CNN-IBN poll seems to have caught Pakistan in a rather low and negative mood, at least vis-à-vis its political leadership, in the last week of July and the first week of August. The urban Pakistanis are angry with the state of affairs. They are angry that they do not have access to basic rights and liberties, that they cannot speak their mind without fear, that they do not have the power to change their government. They are unhappy for they believe that things have deteriorated under the General: whether it is corruption or militancy or sectarian conflict, the proportion of those who believe things got worse is twice as much as those who think otherwise.
Events in the last couple of months have made matters worse for Musharraf. An overwhelming majority disapproves of the attempt to remove Justice Iftikhar Chaudhry and is happy with the decision of the Supreme Court to reinstate him.
The Lal Masjid action has also boomeranged, with less than one third of the urban Pakistanis willing to share the General’s reasoning. The rest either disapprove of the action or question the wisdom of even contemplating such an action inside a Masjid. All in all, it is bad news for General Musharraf.
For every one urban Pakistani who wants him to stay, there are two who want to see his back. This reflects in the ratings of the government and Prime Minister Shaukat Aziz as well.
Pakistan looks more ready for democratic transition than it has ever since the General took over reigns in 1999. State of Democracy in South Asia, a major study in the five countries of the region carried out in 2005, found that Pakistanis too have a healthy appetite for democracy.
The Indian Express– Dawn News–CNN-IBN poll shows that their support for democracy has actually gone up in the last two years, as has their trust in the courts. Correspondingly, their tolerance of army’s role in politics has sharply declined since 2005. All this is good news for prospects of democracy. The only worrisome sign is that the level of trust in the Election Commission, an institution that may be called upon to play a crucial role in democratic transition, continues to be very low.
Patil leads the race amongst urban Indians | ||||
If people were to elect the President, they would have elected… | Urban India | UPA Voters | NDA Voters | Left Voters |
| Pratibha Patil | 41 | 47 | 34 | 48 |
| Bhairon Singh Shekhawat | 16 | 10 | 25 | 12 |
| None of them | 20 | 18 | 23 | 21 |
| Note: All figures in column percentages. Rest 'no opinion'. | ||||
Too early to comment on Patil's competence | ||||
Is Patil competent enough to be the President? | Urban India | UPA Voters | NDA Voters | Left Voters |
| No, she is not competent | 17 | 15 | 18 | 19 |
| Too early to judge her | 58 | 55 | 63 | 72 |
| Note: All figures in column percentages. Rest 'no opinion'. | ||||
Satisfaction with the UPA government's performance… | January 2007 | August 2007 |
| Satisfied | 48 | 73 |
| Dissatisfied | 35 | 21 |
| Satisfaction with Manmohan Singh's performance as PM… | January 2007 | August 2007 |
| Satisfied | 57 | 77 |
| Dissatisfied | 26 | 17 |
| Note: All figures in column percentages. Rest 'no opinion'. | ||
People want the Musharraf to quit | |
Should Musharraf stay on? | |
| No, he should quit | 55 |
| Yes, the country needs him | 30 |
| Note: All figures in column percentages. Rest 'no opinion'. | |
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